Flash flooding and heatwave throughout the region, including Guyana, is not an unexpected phenomenon at this time of year. In fact it has been highlighted in the first issue of the Caribbean Health Climatic Bulletin.
The recently released publication is one published through the collaborative efforts of the Caribbean Public Heath Agency (CARPHA), the Pan American Health Organisation/World Health Organisation (PAHO/WHO) and the Caribbean Institute for Meterology and Hydrology (CIMH).
According to the Bulletin, the months of August to October represent the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and forecasters have advised a higher likelihood of an above- normal season, with an increase in the predicted number of named storms and major hurricanes. In fact this time of year could be the most active Atlantic hurricane season since 2010.
The period August to October is also the wettest part of the wet season, according to the information released. This will translate to rainfall totals being forecast to be at least as high as usual in the Antilles (except Trinidad and Tobago), The Bahamas and Belize, but less than usual, or usual in Trinidad and Tobago.
Although there is no clear signal for the Guianas at this time, which have entered their hot, dry season it is expected to continue into the wet season. Added to this it is forecasted that there will be an increase in wet days and wet spells. Flash flooding and long-term flooding is a concern due to the possibility of extremely wet spells. With a peak in temperatures between August and October across the Caribbean – as well as a peak in humidity in the islands and in Belize , the entire region will be susceptible to the effects of excessive heat and heatwaves. Nighttime and daytime temperatures in the Caribbean are forecast to generally be at least as high as usual for this time of year. Short-term drought is evolving in Haiti and might persist in The Bahamas through October. Long-term drought is evolving in central parts of The Bahamas and may develop in the north as well. Episodes of Saharan dust incursions into the Caribbean will become less frequent. By contrast, in the Guianas, surface dryness may lead to greater levels of dust in the atmosphere.